NOAA Just Forecast the Quietest Hurricane Season in Years. A Super El Niño Is the Reason.

LAKELAND, Fla., May 22, 2026 —

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Thursday at its Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, forecasting a below-normal season driven by the anticipated development of a Super El Niño pattern that is expected to suppress tropical storm formation across the Atlantic basin from June through November.

It is the first below-normal hurricane season forecast NOAA has issued since 2014.

The Numbers NOAA Released and What They Mean

NOAA’s 2026 forecast calls for 8 to 14 named storms — systems with sustained winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. Of those, 3 to 6 are expected to reach hurricane strength at 74 miles per hour or higher, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes at Category 3 intensity or above, meaning sustained winds exceeding 111 miles per hour. NOAA expressed 70% confidence in those ranges.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces approximately 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA’s 2026 forecast sits below those historical averages across all three categories. The agency assigned a 55% probability to a below-normal season, a 35% probability to near-normal activity, and just a 10% probability to an above-normal season.

Colorado State University, which pioneered the science of seasonal hurricane forecasting in 1984, released its own April forecast projecting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes — broadly consistent with NOAA’s below-normal outlook.

Why El Niño Is the Dominant Suppressor

The primary force behind NOAA’s below-normal forecast is the same climate pattern that has been building in the Pacific Ocean since April: El Niño. When El Niño is active, warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures alter upper-level wind patterns across the tropics in ways that produce strong vertical wind shear over the Atlantic basin. Wind shear — the difference in wind speed and direction at different altitudes — tears apart developing tropical storms before they can organize into hurricanes. Strong El Niño years have historically produced some of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record for precisely this reason.

The 2026 El Niño is not a routine event. Forecasting models have been tracking the development of what climate scientists and NOAA officials have increasingly described as a potential Super El Niño — a rare, extreme warm phase with Pacific sea surface temperatures projected to run as much as 3 degrees Celsius above normal at peak intensity. That magnitude of warming, if realized, would produce correspondingly strong wind shear over the Atlantic, reinforcing NOAA’s below-normal forecast through the season’s peak activity months of August, September, and October.

Atlantic sea surface temperatures are running slightly warmer than normal — a factor that under different atmospheric conditions would favor storm development. The El Niño’s shear effect is expected to override that favorable ocean warmth, preventing storm systems from intensifying even when ocean temperatures provide the energy for it.

The Warning NOAA Issued Alongside Its Quiet Forecast

NOAA officials were explicit in their press conference about the risk of interpreting a below-normal season forecast as a reason to drop guard. The agency’s deputy director of the Weather Service delivered the statement that every coastal resident and emergency manager needs to absorb: a below-normal season does not mean a safe season.

A single major hurricane making landfall in a densely populated coastal area can produce more destruction than an entire above-normal season of storms that track harmlessly into open water. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was among the quietest on record, producing zero major hurricanes, and still caused significant property damage from the storms that did develop. NOAA’s forecast says nothing about where any storm that does form will ultimately track — and that determination is governed by short-term weather patterns that no seasonal forecast can predict.

The agency pointed directly to 2025’s experience. Multiple storms from last year’s above-normal season produced catastrophic inland flooding in communities far from the coast — a reminder that hurricane impacts extend well beyond the immediate shoreline and well beyond the moment of landfall.

What the Quieter Forecast Means for Insurance, Preparedness, and the Gulf Coast

A below-normal season forecast carries immediate practical implications for homeowners, insurers, and emergency managers. Property insurers in Florida, Texas, Louisiana, and the Carolinas use seasonal outlooks as one input in their catastrophe risk models — though the localized track uncertainty means individual policy pricing does not drop meaningfully in response to a below-normal season forecast alone.

For homeowners in hurricane-vulnerable areas, the preparedness calculus does not change. A Category 3 hurricane making landfall at any point between June and November causes the same damage whether NOAA predicted 8 storms or 18. The American Red Cross and FEMA maintain consistent preparedness guidance regardless of the seasonal outlook: 72-hour emergency supply kits, evacuation route knowledge, updated flood and wind insurance coverage, and a household communication plan.

The 2026 hurricane season officially begins June 1 — ten days from now. NOAA will update its forecast in early August as the season’s actual activity pattern becomes clearer and as El Niño’s intensity can be measured against the developing season. The Super El Niño that is suppressing Atlantic storms is simultaneously driving heat, drought, and wildfire risk across the Western United States and flooding risk across the Gulf South — a reminder that quieter hurricane seasons and calmer Atlantic waters do not mean a calmer year for American communities facing weather-related risk.