WASHINGTON, APRIL 6, 2026 —
WASHINGTON, APRIL 6, 2026 — Six weeks into a war most Americans never asked for, President Trump’s political standing has reached a new low — and the erosion is happening inside his own coalition. Multiple polls released this week show his overall approval rating fallen to 35%, his handling of the Iran war down to 30%, and his approval on the economy at a career-worst 31% — with the damage now clearly visible among the Republicans and independents who helped elect him.
The most detailed evidence comes from a YouGov/University of Massachusetts Amherst poll that has tracked Trump voter sentiment since the 2024 election. In April 2025, 74% of Trump voters said they were “very confident” in their vote. The latest survey shows that share has fallen sharply — with between 1 in 8 and 1 in 6 Trump voters now expressing some measure of regret, mixed feelings, or concerns about their 2024 choice. Analysts noted that if even a fraction of those voters stayed home in November’s midterms, it would represent a serious electoral threat to House Republicans.
What the Polls Are Showing
The numbers across multiple independent surveys tell a consistent story. In the five weeks since the Iran war began on February 28, Trump’s support from his own base has declined across every measured group:
- Overall approval: Down from 39% to 35% — YouGov/Economist
- Among 2024 Trump voters: Down 6 points to 76% approval
- Among conservatives: Down 4 points to 79% approval
- Among Republicans: Down 5 points to 81% approval
- Among self-described MAGA supporters: Down 5 points to 92% approval
- Among independents: 22% approval — the lowest of his second term
A Reuters/Ipsos poll put his overall approval at 36%. A Fox News survey recorded his disapproval at 59% — the highest level in either of his presidential terms.
On specific issues, a CNN poll found 63% of Trump’s own 2024 voters disapprove of his handling of gas prices. Among the same group, significant minorities disapprove of his handling of the economy, the war, and immigration — topics he campaigned on as strengths.
What Is Driving the Decline
Gas prices are the most immediate driver. The national average hit $4.00 per gallon this week for the first time since 2022 — a 37% increase since the war began. California has reached $5.92 per gallon. The CNN poll found 63% of Americans say higher gas costs have caused at least some financial hardship in their household — including 15% who describe the hardship as severe.
The war itself is deeply unpopular. The NPR/PBS/Marist poll found 56% of Americans oppose the military action in Iran, with only 36% approving of Trump’s handling of it. A striking 55% say they see Iran as only a minor threat or no threat at all — a direct contradiction of the administration’s stated rationale for going to war.
The F-15 shootdown added another layer of political damage. Trump had repeatedly told Americans Iran’s air defenses were “100% annihilated” and the U.S. was “unstoppable.” Iran shot down an F-15E on Friday, disproving that claim in the most public way possible.
Among traditional, non-MAGA Republicans, support for the Iran war has swung by 48 points — from strongly positive to -23 — in a single YouGov/Economist survey. That number signals something beyond ordinary polling noise.
Iran War Political Impact — Key Polling Numbers
| Metric | Figure | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Trump overall approval | 35% | Down 4 pts since Feb 28 |
| Trump approval — Iran war | 30% | Down 11 pts in one week |
| Trump approval — economy | 31% | Career low |
| Trump approval — independents | 22% | Lowest of second term |
| Americans opposing Iran war | 56% | NPR/PBS/Marist |
| Trump 2024 voters with concerns/regret | 1 in 6 | YouGov/UMass Amherst |
| Non-MAGA Republicans supporting war | -23 net | Down 48 pts |
| Americans cutting back driving | 45% | Up 5 pts in one year |
The Midterm Stakes
The midterm elections are seven months away in November 2026. Second-term presidents with approval ratings below 40% historically face significant losses in the House and Senate. Trump currently sits at 35% — well below that threshold — with the war showing no signs of ending quickly and gas prices unlikely to fall while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
Democrats began 2026 with structural advantages on the economy and cost-of-living. The Iran war, the Epstein files debacle, the firing of two Cabinet members in a month, and now visible cracks in Republican unity have given them additional ammunition. Whether those advantages translate to November depends on whether the war ends — and whether it ends in a way Trump can credibly call a win.
That question has no answer yet. But the political clock is running alongside the military one.
