By Harshit
KYIV, DECEMBER 1 —
Ukraine is projecting a modest but significant rise in its 2025 wheat harvest, even as the country faces escalating pressure from Russia, renewed diplomatic maneuvering with Western allies, and continued attacks on civilian centers. The latest agricultural forecast comes at a sensitive moment for Kyiv, with both battlefield dynamics and political negotiations shaping the broader outlook for the country’s wartime resilience.
Taras Vysotskiy, Ukraine’s deputy economy minister, told Reuters that the nation’s wheat harvest could increase to 24–25 million tons in 2025, up from this year’s estimate of 23 million tons. The growth would mark a slow but steady rebound toward Ukraine’s pre-war production capacity, which once made it one of the world’s top grain suppliers.
Ukraine harvested 22.6 million tons of wheat in 2024, exporting nearly 15.7 million tons during the 2024–25 marketing year, despite constant disruptions from Russian attacks on farmland, storage facilities and export logistics. Winter wheat remains the backbone of Ukraine’s production, representing the majority of the acreage planted across the country’s southern and central regions.
Vysotskiy noted that Kyiv does not plan to restrict wheat exports in the upcoming July–June 2025–26 season. A higher projected harvest and modest export pace early in the current season have alleviated pressure on domestic supply.
Russian Pressure on the Peace Process
Even as agricultural projections signal cautious optimism, Ukraine remains under intense geopolitical strain. Reporting from Kyiv, Al Jazeera’s Rory Challands said Russia continues to pile pressure on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, declaring it will not sign any peace agreement with him, as Moscow claims it does not recognize him as a legitimate president.
This comes at a time when Zelenskyy is weakened at home by a major domestic corruption scandal, adding political tension to an already volatile environment. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has expressed confidence that Washington’s goal is not merely ending the war but ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security and prosperity.
Rubio has reportedly emphasized that discussions between US and Ukrainian officials have included “big substantive issues” such as security guarantees, reconstruction, and new lines of demarcation. With the US driving the latest peace push, Kyiv hopes the diplomatic momentum will help consolidate international support ahead of winter.
High-Level Diplomacy in Motion
Diplomatic traffic intensified this weekend. Zelenskyy held hours-long talks with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, focusing on negotiations to end the war and establish “truly durable” peace. In a post on X, Zelenskyy said the talks covered a “great many details,” and that further consultations with European partners would continue over the weekend.
In parallel, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the meeting would take place in the second half of the day, but declined to say whether a joint statement would be issued. The discussions follow several days of US–Ukraine negotiations in Florida with Witkoff present.
These dual diplomatic tracks — American-led peace efforts and European involvement — come as Ukraine weighs difficult decisions about its defensive posture, territorial concessions, and security architecture for the post-war era.
Zelenskyy said Saturday there were still “tough issues” to resolve in the US–Ukraine talks. His delegation is expected back in Europe in the coming days to report on next steps.
Russia Continues Deadly Attacks
Even amid diplomatic maneuvering, the war on the ground continues unabated. A Russian missile strike on the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Monday killed at least four people and injured 22 others, the region’s acting governor Vladyslav Haivanenko said.
Images published by local officials show destroyed vehicles, shattered windows and emergency responders navigating debris in residential districts. With a pre-war population of nearly one million, Dnipro has been a frequent target of Russian attacks despite being nearly 100 kilometers from the front line.
There was no immediate response from Moscow regarding the strike.
A Region Bracing for Critical Decisions
As agricultural planners forecast a stronger harvest, the broader environment in Ukraine remains fraught with uncertainty. Political pressure from Moscow, shifting US engagement, corruption challenges at home and repeated missile strikes all shape the country’s path ahead.
Ukraine’s wheat fields may promise a better year, but its political and security future — from peace negotiations to military defense — remains deeply uncertain.