By Harshit
NEW YORK, Nov. 28, 2025
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Friday after an unexpected technical failure at one of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) data centers temporarily disrupted trading in futures markets, sending traders into contingency mode ahead of a quiet economic data day.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly above 4.01%, climbing more than 1 basis point. The 30-year bond yield gained over 2 basis points to 4.665%, while the 2-year note yield moved up more than 1 basis point to 3.493%. Yields move inversely to prices, and one basis point equals 0.01%.
The morning’s volatility was not driven by economic news but by infrastructure issues at CME—one of the most important trading venues for global interest-rate futures, Treasury futures, and equity futures. Pre-market equity products and bond futures were affected before trading resumed later in the morning.
Treasury Yields — Nov. 28, 2025
| Maturity | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. 1 Month | 3.974% | +0.034 |
| U.S. 3 Month | 3.827% | -0.021 |
| U.S. 6 Month | 3.769% | -0.019 |
| U.S. 1 Year | 3.599% | -0.007 |
| U.S. 2 Year | 3.493% | +0.012 |
| U.S. 10 Year | 4.017% | +0.019 |
| U.S. 30 Year | 4.665% | +0.021 |
CME Data Center Cooling Failure Halts Trading
The CME Group said trading in several futures contracts was halted Friday morning due to a “cooling issue” at one of its critical data centers. The outage affected bond futures and some premarket equity products.
The disruption triggered early uncertainty as traders switched to backup venues and assessed potential impacts on liquidity. Markets normalized once trading resumed around 8:30 a.m. ET, but the episode highlighted the vulnerability of financial markets to infrastructure failures.
Such outages are rare, and CME said additional details would be provided once operations fully stabilize.
Market Quiet Ahead of Key Inflation Report
Friday brought no major U.S. economic releases, giving traders little fresh information about the underlying direction of the economy or Federal Reserve policy. But attention now turns to next week’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
The upcoming PCE data is expected to be the most important input ahead of the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2025. With inflation easing and concerns rising about a cooling labor market, investors are watching closely to see whether the Fed will extend its rate-cutting cycle.
Markets are currently pricing in a more than 85% probability of a quarter-percentage-point cut at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That probability has risen steadily since comments earlier this month from several Fed officials indicating that policy may already be restrictive enough.
What Traders Are Watching Next
With the U.S. government shutdown ending last week, several delayed economic reports have been released in rapid succession. However, the PCE index—covering both headline and core inflation—remains the critical missing piece.
Key questions for investors include:
1. Will core inflation continue slowing?
A further cooling would reinforce the case for a December cut.
2. Has consumer spending held up?
Weakening spending would suggest broader economic slowdown.
3. Could the Fed slow or pause its rate-cut cycle?
If inflation flattens or rises, hawkish voices at the Fed may push for caution.
Bond market movements this week reflect sensitivity to even small signals around rates. Yields fell earlier in the week after delayed jobs data and remarks from New York Fed President John Williams suggested additional easing may be appropriate.
Friday’s slight uptick in yields indicates traders positioning ahead of next week rather than responding to economic fundamentals.
Economic Landscape Remains Mixed
Despite technical disruptions and temporary market swings, investors broadly expect the Fed to shift toward a more neutral stance in early 2026.
However, lingering questions remain:
- The labor market is showing early signs of softening.
- Economic data has been fragmented due to the shutdown.
- Markets remain volatile amid concerns about overvaluation in AI-related equities.
Friday’s modest move in yields underscores how sensitive markets remain to any developments that could shape the policy path.