By Harshit
CARACAS, Dec. 7, 2025 —
Nicolás Maduro believes his political mentor, the late Hugo Chávez, has appeared before him in the form of a bird and a butterfly. He has moved Christmas to October by presidential decree, arguing it lifts national morale. He frequently invents words, mixes metaphors, and misspeaks in ways that turn speeches into viral ridicule.
In Venezuela and across Latin America, these moments have earned a nickname: “maduradas.”
Yet for more than 12 years, those who mocked Maduro have been proven wrong. The man many underestimated, dismissed as a placeholder or buffoon, is now Latin America’s longest-serving leader in active power — and one of the world’s most resilient authoritarian survivors.
As Venezuela faces mounting military, diplomatic, and economic pressure from US President Donald Trump’s second administration, the central question returns once again:
Can Nicolás Maduro defy predictions one more time?
The Chosen Heir of Hugo Chávez
Maduro’s ascent to power was not inevitable. In 2012, as Chávez’s health deteriorated, several senior figures vied quietly for succession within chavismo. Diosdado Cabello, then head of the National Assembly, commanded significant institutional support. Maduro, by contrast, lacked charisma, electoral popularity, and an independent power base.
But Chávez made the decision unambiguous.
“If something happens that prevents me from continuing,” Chávez said in December 2012, “you should choose Nicolás Maduro.”
That blessing ended internal rivalry overnight.
Maduro, Chávez’s loyal foreign minister and vice president, presented himself not as a successor but as a continuation — the “son of Chávez.” When Chávez died in March 2013, Maduro inherited not a stable movement but a grieving, fractured nation.
His first election victory came by a razor-thin margin: 1.59% over opposition leader Henrique Capriles. The result was contested immediately. Protests erupted. Legitimacy was questioned. Inside chavismo, doubts lingered.
Maduro’s answer would define his rule: survive first, consolidate later.
The Survival Pattern
From the very beginning, Maduro governed through a repeated cycle that remains intact today:
- disputed elections
- mass protests
- repression and arrests
- redistribution of power inside the regime
- external blame — especially the United States
Each crisis weakened Venezuela — but strengthened Maduro.
Internationally, he leaned into alliances with Washington’s traditional rivals. China provided financing. Russia offered political cover. Iran delivered technical assistance and fuel supplies. Cuba, however, became indispensable.
According to multiple former US officials and regional analysts, Cuban intelligence and security advisers helped Maduro detect and neutralize threats within his own ranks, particularly during the failed opposition uprising of April 2019.
“Cuba was the difference,” said Ronal Rodríguez of Colombia’s Universidad del Rosario. “Maduro understood early that loyalty had to be managed — not assumed.”
The Armed Forces: The Real Power Axis
Unlike Chávez, Maduro lacked deep ties to the military. To compensate, he transformed the armed forces into economic stakeholders.
Senior officers were placed in charge of ports, food distribution, mining, oil logistics, and customs. Entire sectors of the economy were militarized. Loyalty was purchased not with ideology, but with access.
“Maduro turned Venezuela into a confederation of interests,” said Javier Corrales, an Amherst College professor and author of The Rise of Autocracy. “And he positioned himself as the manager.”
Alongside the military, armed civilian groups known as colectivos became enforcement tools. According to UN investigations, these groups played a central role in suppressing protests through intimidation, violence, and targeted repression.
“They are the regime’s sheriffs,” Corrales said. “And they have everything to lose if the system collapses.”
The Cost of Endurance
Maduro’s political survival has come at a devastating national cost.
Since he took office:
- Venezuela’s economy has shrunk to roughly 28% of its 2013 size.
- Oil export revenues are down nearly 80%, according to OPEC data.
- Poverty peaked at 90% of the population.
- Nearly eight million Venezuelans have fled the country — one of the largest displacement crises in modern history.
The United Nations has documented systematic abuses, including arbitrary detention, torture, extrajudicial executions, and political persecution, concluding there are “reasonable grounds” to consider crimes against humanity.
Maduro rejects all allegations, calling them foreign conspiracies and ideological attacks.
Sanctions, Mismanagement, and the Narrative of Siege
Maduro has consistently blamed US sanctions for Venezuela’s collapse. While sanctions undoubtedly worsened conditions after 2019, the economic decline began years earlier.
PDVSA, the state oil company, deteriorated due to mismanagement, corruption, and political purges long before sanctions were imposed. Infrastructure decayed. Investment vanished. Production collapsed.
Still, sanctions served Maduro well politically.
They became the explanation for everything — scarcity, inflation, migration — reinforcing his long-standing anti-imperialist narrative. Each foreign threat strengthened his claim that Venezuela was under siege.
Elections Without Consequences
Every major election since 2013 has been disputed.
The opposition briefly triumphed in the 2015 legislative elections, only to see its victory neutralized through court rulings and institutional maneuvering. Subsequent votes — including the 2018 and 2024 presidential elections — were rejected by much of the international community.
Even leftist allies such as Brazil and Colombia declined to recognize Maduro’s latest re-election.
Yet inside Venezuela, the system held.
“Maduro mastered the art of hollow elections,” Corrales writes. “They provide continuity without risk.”
The Trump Factor Returns
Maduro now faces a renewed challenge from Washington.
President Donald Trump’s second administration has escalated pressure through:
- expanded naval and air deployments
- strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels
- terrorist designations
- aggressive financial sanctions
US officials frame the strategy as combating narcotics and restoring democracy. Maduro sees an existential threat.
In recent speeches, he has warned of imperial aggression while urging military readiness. His government has tightened internal controls, arrested dissenters, and staged loyalty demonstrations.
Why Maduro Still Stands
Many analysts argue that removing Maduro abruptly could destabilize Venezuela further.
Too many actors — military leaders, security chiefs, political elites — are implicated in the system. A sudden collapse could trigger fragmentation, retaliation, or internal conflict.
“There are too many people with too much to lose,” Corrales said. “That’s Maduro’s real shield.”
Time and again, the Venezuelan president has proven adept at outlasting pressure rather than resolving crises.
He delays. Negotiates. Divides opponents. Waits.
And then survives.
The Unanswered Question
Nearly thirteen years after Chávez named him heir, Maduro stands isolated, sanctioned, and internationally condemned — yet still firmly in control of the state.
As US pressure intensifies once more, the same question looms that has followed him since 2013:
Is this finally the end — or just another test he survives?
History suggests betting against Nicolás Maduro has rarely paid off.