By Harshit | LOS ANGELES, Nov. 18, 2025 | 6:45 AM EDT
LOS ANGELES — Lincoln Riley and No. 15 USC might just be the matchstick that sets the entire College Football Playoff (CFP) system on fire 🔥.
When the Trojans (8-2) travel to face No. 5 Oregon (9-1) this weekend, the stakes are much bigger than a simple Top 15 clash. A USC upset would send a shockwave through playoff selection rooms from Chicago to Birmingham — and potentially expose just how fragile the new 12-team format really is.
If Riley’s Trojans knock off Oregon, the ripple effects could ignite calls to expand the playoff to 16 teams, reigniting the simmering power struggle between the Big Ten and the SEC.
💣 The Chaos Scenario: USC 10-2, Oregon 9-3
A USC upset in Eugene could trigger a doomsday scenario for the 12-team playoff. Suddenly, both USC and Oregon would sit at 10-2, crowding an already jam-packed Big Ten playoff bubble.
If a 10-2 Big Ten team like USC were to miss the playoff, it would be the ultimate embarrassment for the league that fought for this expanded model.
Conversely, if USC sneaks in at Oregon’s expense, the outrage from the Pacific Northwest could push Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey toward a new reality — one where the 12-team playoff dies before it ever feels stable.
🏆 The 10-Win Dilemma
Ten wins has long been the magic number — the informal guarantee that an SEC or Big Ten team earns a playoff ticket. But what happens when there are too many 10-win teams and not enough spots?
By season’s end, both conferences could have five or six teams with double-digit wins.
Here’s how that might look:
- Big Ten: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, USC
- SEC: Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee
That’s potentially 11 teams vying for maybe six or seven available spots once automatic qualifiers from other leagues (ACC, Big 12, Group of 5) are included.
Suddenly, two deserving 10-win Big Ten teams could be left on the outside looking in — and the cries for a 16-team playoff would grow deafening.
📈 Why the 12-Team Format Could Collapse
Right now, the 12-team structure guarantees:
- 6 automatic bids for conference champions
- 6 at-large bids for the highest-ranked non-champions
This worked — until the Big Ten and SEC started stacking elite programs on top of one another.
If USC or Oregon (or both) were to finish 10-2 and still be denied entry, the Big Ten would lose faith in the current setup.
As one Big Ten source told The Athletic last month:
“We built this format to protect our teams. If it ends up cutting them out, it’s broken before it begins.”
⚖️ The 16-Team Expansion Debate
The SEC’s “5+11” model proposes keeping five automatic bids and adding 11 at-large teams, giving flexibility for powerhouse conferences.
The Big Ten, however, has favored a play-in structure that gives guaranteed auto-bids to all four Power conferences — a model that critics say weakens the committee’s influence and overcomplicates the process.
Neither side has budged, which is why playoff expansion talks stalled earlier this fall. But one chaotic selection weekend could force a reckoning — and make the SEC’s simpler 16-team idea suddenly appealing to the Big Ten.
😈 Lincoln Riley: The Chaos Catalyst
Lincoln Riley has always thrived as college football’s disruptor. From his explosive Oklahoma offenses to his Hollywood arrival at USC, he’s consistently rewritten expectations.
Now, as the Big Ten’s newest troublemaker, Riley has a chance to do it again. Beating Oregon would:
- Shatter the Pac-12’s (now Big Ten’s) hierarchy,
- Expose the flaws in the playoff format, and
- Pressure college football’s power brokers to expand — again.
He’s complained about cross-country travel and conference scheduling, but he’s also found a rhythm in his first Big Ten season. A win Saturday would cement Riley as both a tactical genius and a political bomb-thrower in the playoff race.
📊 Why It Matters
- If USC wins: 10-2 USC jumps into playoff contention, Oregon tumbles, and chaos reigns.
- If Oregon wins: The Ducks stay in the hunt for a top-four seed, stabilizing the bracket — for now.
- If both miss the CFP: Expect immediate calls from media and athletic directors to revisit expansion talks by 2026.
💬 Historical Echoes
- The BCS collapsed after undefeated Auburn (2004) was left out.
- The four-team playoff crumbled after 13-0 Florida State (2023) was excluded.
- Now, the 12-team playoff could crumble if a 10-win Big Ten powerhouse misses the bracket.
The pattern is clear: every playoff format dies when it fails to fit enough powerhouses inside it.