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Social Security recipients are on track to see their biggest cost-of-living adjustment since 2023, with early estimates pointing to an increase of roughly 3.5 to 3.6 percent for 2027, though rising Medicare premiums are expected to offset a meaningful chunk of that gain.
The Senior Citizens League projected in September 2026 that the 2027 COLA would land at about 3.5%, a slight revision down from its August estimate of 3.6%. AARP, meanwhile, issued its own projection on September 11, 2026, estimating the increase at 3.6 percent based on an analysis of current inflation data. Either figure would mark the largest annual bump to Social Security payments since 2023, according to financial news reporting on the estimates.
How the Number Is Calculated
The official COLA figure will not be finalized until the Social Security Administration completes its annual calculation, which relies on Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation data from July, August and September. Specifically, the agency uses a variant of the consumer price index known as CPI-W, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics methodology as described in financial reporting. Because the September inflation report is the final piece of that puzzle, the exact adjustment cannot be confirmed until it is released.
The Social Security Administration will officially announce the 2027 COLA on October 14, 2026, once the September Consumer Price Index data is available. Until then, groups like AARP and the Senior Citizens League can only offer estimates based on partial-year inflation trends.
Context from recent years helps illustrate why this year’s projected increase stands out. The COLA for 2026 was 2.8 percent, itself an increase from the 2.5 percent adjustment that took effect at the start of 2025, the Senior Citizens League noted. A jump to 3.5 or 3.6 percent for 2027 would represent a continued acceleration and the sharpest single-year increase in several years.
For the average retiree, the dollar impact of that percentage is significant. The average retired worker received $2,071 a month in Social Security benefits as of January 2026, according to the Social Security Administration. A COLA in the 3.5 to 3.6 percent range would add somewhere around $70 to $75 to that monthly check, though the final amount will depend on the official figure announced in October.
Medicare Premiums Set to Rise Too
However, much of that increase could be absorbed by rising Medicare costs. The estimated monthly premium for Medicare Part B in 2027 is projected at $209.50, which is $6.60 more than the 2026 rate, according to projections from the Medicare Board of Trustees. Since Medicare premiums are often deducted directly from Social Security payments, the raise a retiree actually notices is the COLA minus whatever the Part B premium increase takes, according to financial news reporting on the interplay between the two programs.
Other Medicare costs are also expected to climb. The standard Medicare Part D deductible is forecast to increase from $615 in 2026 to $700 in 2027, according to analysts at a Medicare information resource. At the same time, the Part D out-of-pocket spending cap will rise by $300, from the current level to $2,400 in 2027, the same analysts said. Together, these increases mean that even as monthly benefit checks grow, beneficiaries may face higher costs for prescription drug coverage and other Medicare-related expenses.
It is worth noting that these Medicare figures remain projections. CMS typically announces final 2027 Medicare premiums, deductibles, and the Part D out-of-pocket cap in the fall, closer to the start of the Annual Enrollment Period, according to a Medicare guide publication. That means both the COLA and the Medicare premium figures could shift slightly before they are locked in.
Open Enrollment and Insurer Changes
Beneficiaries will have a window to adjust their coverage once the final numbers are in. Medicare’s annual open enrollment period runs from October 15 through December 7, 2026, allowing beneficiaries to switch Medicare Advantage plans, change Part D prescription drug plans, or move between Medicare Advantage and Original Medicare. Any changes made during that window take effect January 1, 2027, according to analysts at a Medicare information resource.
This year’s enrollment period comes amid notable disruption in the Medicare Advantage market. Humana said in July 2026 that it would exit certain Medicare Advantage markets, a move that will affect about 600,000 members who will need to find new coverage options during the enrollment window.
For now, retirees and near-retirees are left watching two moving targets: the size of their upcoming raise and the size of the premium increases that will eat into it. The Senior Citizens League and AARP estimates offer an early read, but the definitive numbers will not arrive until October, when the Social Security Administration and CMS release their respective figures within weeks of each other. Until then, the gap between the projected 3.5 to 3.6 percent COLA and the expected Medicare premium hikes remains the central question shaping how much extra money retirees will actually see in their monthly checks come January.
