WASHINGTON, APRIL 9, 2026 —
Key Takeaways
- Oil prices plunged 15 to 16% on Wednesday — the largest single-day drop since April 2020 — after the US-Iran ceasefire was announced, dropping US crude to approximately $94 per barrel from a war-high above $113
- Gas prices are expected to begin falling within 36 to 72 hours as retailers reprice their pump inventory — analysts forecast a drop of $0.45 to $0.56 per gallon within two to four weeks if the ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens
- The national average of $4.16 per gallon as of Wednesday morning could fall to approximately $3.60 to $3.70 by late April — but will not return to pre-war levels of $2.94 anytime soon due to infrastructure damage, a tanker backlog of 187 vessels, and seasonal demand
For the first time in 40 days, American drivers have reason to believe the pain at the pump is about to ease. Oil markets moved decisively Wednesday after the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire — cutting crude prices by more than $15 per barrel in a single session and signaling to the gasoline supply chain that the worst of the Iran-war energy shock may be ending.
But “easing” is not the same as “over.” Here is what the data actually shows about when relief arrives, how much it will be, and what could still go wrong.
What Happened to Oil Prices Wednesday
US crude (WTI) fell 15.4% to settle at $94.41 per barrel — the biggest single-day decline since the COVID crash of April 2020. Brent crude fell 13.3% to $94.75. European natural gas futures shed as much as 20% intraday before closing lower by more than 15% — their biggest single-day decline in over two years.
For context: oil was trading at approximately $67 per barrel on February 27 — the day before the war began. Even after Wednesday’s 15% plunge, oil is still trading 41% above pre-war levels. The ceasefire removed the fear premium of imminent escalation. It has not yet removed the underlying supply disruption.
When Will You Feel It at the Pump?
Gas prices are downstream from oil prices — they do not move instantly, and they move slower on the way down than on the way up. Here is the realistic timeline based on what analysts told ABC News, Axios, and NBC News:
Within 36 to 72 hours (by this weekend): Gas stations in some markets will begin repricing downward. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy, whose tracker monitors real-time pump prices nationally, said stations could start cutting by 1 to 3 cents per day beginning this weekend in some regions.
Within 1 to 2 weeks: If the ceasefire holds and tankers begin moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the national average could fall below $4.00 per gallon — the first time since early March 2026.
Within 2 to 4 weeks: Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov forecasts a drop of approximately $0.45 per gallon, pulling the national average toward $3.70. University of Tennessee professor Timothy Fitzgerald forecasts a $0.50 drop within about four weeks.
The longer-term outlook: Analysts say gas is unlikely to return to pre-war levels of $2.94 per gallon anytime soon. Reasons include the tanker backlog in the Gulf, damage to regional energy infrastructure including Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, the spring and summer travel demand season, and the possibility that Iran will charge transit fees for ships passing through the Strait even after the ceasefire.
Gas Price Forecast — What to Expect by When
| Timeline | Expected National Average | Change from $4.16 |
|---|---|---|
| Today (April 9) | ~$4.10–$4.16 | Minimal — lag effect |
| This weekend | ~$4.00–$4.10 | −$0.06–$0.16 |
| End of April | ~$3.60–$3.70 | −$0.46–$0.56 |
| Summer 2026 | ~$3.40–$3.60 | Depends on ceasefire durability |
| Return to pre-war ($2.94) | Not expected in 2026 | Infrastructure damage + demand |
What Could Prevent the Drop
Three factors could limit or reverse the gas price decline:
1. The ceasefire collapses. Iran has described the ceasefire as conditional. Peace talks in Islamabad are scheduled for Friday. If talks break down or either side violates the ceasefire, oil could spike back toward $110 or higher.
2. The Strait does not actually reopen fully. Iran has said ships must “coordinate with Iranian armed forces” to transit — a condition that leaves ambiguous whether commercial tanker traffic can flow freely. As of Wednesday, 187 tankers containing 172 million barrels of crude were stranded inside the Gulf. Clearing that backlog will take weeks even under ideal conditions.
3. Spring demand. Gas prices historically rise in spring and summer due to higher driving demand and the switch to more expensive summer-blend fuel formulations. Even a $0.50 ceasefire dividend may be partially offset by seasonal demand increases.
What You Should Do Right Now
If your car uses regular unleaded, wait a few days before filling up if your tank is not critically low — prices should begin falling this weekend in most markets. Gas Buddy’s price-tracking app and GasBuddy.com show real-time prices at stations near you, allowing you to find the lowest price in your area even as the market adjusts unevenly.
Diesel drivers will see relief more slowly — De Haan noted that diesel prices “may lag slightly” behind gasoline. The national average for diesel was $5.65 on Tuesday, dangerously close to the all-time record of $5.82 set in 2022.
For household budgeting: The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes, released Wednesday, show Fed officials specifically noted that oil prices “could warrant additional rate cuts” if the conflict eased — meaning the ceasefire may also eventually translate into lower mortgage rates and borrowing costs, on top of gas price relief.
