By Harshit, 9 DEC, 8 AM EDT
MIAMI, FLORIDA — A closely watched mayoral runoff in Miami is shaping up as a national political test for Republicans and President Donald Trump, as Democrat Eileen Higgins and Republican Emilio González face off Tuesday evening in a race that could signal shifting political winds ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
The contest comes at a moment when Democrats have posted a string of unexpected wins in off-year elections across the country, raising questions about whether Trump’s dominance in traditionally competitive or Republican-leaning areas is beginning to erode. Early voting data suggests Higgins holds a narrow advantage, though both campaigns insist the race remains too close to call.
Miami, long considered a politically complex city with strong Republican leanings in recent years, has not elected a Democratic mayor in roughly 25 years. A Higgins victory would mark a historic shift — and could be interpreted nationally as a setback for Trump, who endorsed González and flipped Miami-Dade County in the 2024 presidential election.
A Race With National Implications
Democrats have already notched significant victories this year, including gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey and a mayoral victory in New York City. Even in districts where Trump previously won by wide margins, Democrats have narrowed the gap. In Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, for example, a Democrat lost by just nine points in an area Trump carried by more than 20.
Miami’s mayoral race appears to be following that trend.
“If Democrats win Miami, it reinforces the narrative that the political map is less stable for Republicans than it was just a year ago,” one Florida-based political analyst said. “That matters heading into 2026.”
Who Is Eileen Higgins?
Higgins, 61, is a former Miami-Dade County commissioner known locally as “La Gringa,” a nickname she has embraced while representing diverse communities, including Miami’s iconic Little Havana. First elected to the commission in 2018, Higgins became its longest-serving member before resigning this year under Florida’s resign-to-run law.
Throughout her mayoral campaign, Higgins has focused heavily on housing affordability — a top concern in Miami following a post-pandemic influx of residents from New York and California that sent rents and home prices soaring. Rising costs have reshaped local politics and were a key factor in Trump’s strong showing in Miami-Dade County in 2024.
Higgins has emphasized her record securing funding for affordable housing projects and pushing transit expansions, framing herself as a pragmatic administrator rather than a partisan figure.
“I lead with my Democratic values, but I serve everybody,” Higgins told USA Today. “I never asked someone what party they belong to. I govern for the entire city.”
She has received backing from prominent Democrats, including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego. The Democratic National Committee has also invested resources in bilingual voter outreach ahead of the runoff.
Who Is Emilio González?
González, 68, brings a vastly different résumé. A retired Air Force colonel, he served 26 years in the military, including postings as an Army attaché in Mexico and El Salvador and senior roles at the Defense Intelligence Agency. He later became director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services under President George W. Bush and served as Miami’s city manager under Mayor Francis Suarez.
González has campaigned on fighting corruption and curbing what he calls “cronyism” at City Hall, positioning himself as a law-and-order reformer with executive experience.
He has been endorsed by Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and Senator Rick Scott. In a Truth Social post following the first round of voting, Trump praised González as a leader who would “grow the economy, cut regulations, keep the border secure, and defend the Second Amendment.”
For Republicans, González represents continuity with Trump’s Florida coalition, which made significant gains among Hispanic voters in recent election cycles.
How Big Is This Race — Really?
While national Democrats see the race as a potential bellwether, local political veterans urge caution. Former Miami Mayor Xavier Suarez — father of current Mayor Francis Suarez — noted that the contest is officially nonpartisan and shaped heavily by campaign spending and turnout dynamics.
“This is an odd-year election,” Suarez said. “Money and organization matter more than party labels here.”
Still, both parties understand the symbolism. A Higgins victory would allow Democrats to claim momentum in a city Trump carried convincingly just one year ago. A González win, meanwhile, would reaffirm Republican strength in a region once considered safely Democratic.
Either outcome is likely to be spun nationally as evidence for — or against — the idea that a “blue wave” could be forming ahead of 2026.