By Harshit
NEW YORK, Nov. 24, 2025
U.S. Treasury yields moved slightly lower on Monday as bond traders began a shortened Thanksgiving week and prepared for a fresh round of delayed economic data that could provide important signals ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury slipped more than one basis point to 4.046% in early morning trading, while the 30-year bond yield fell more than three basis points to 4.683%. The 2-year note yield, which tends to reflect near-term Fed policy expectations, was little changed around 3.512%.
Across the broader Treasury curve, yields were modestly lower Monday, reflecting a cautious tone as investors digest the incoming backlog of federal economic data following the historic 43-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, which ended last week.
A single basis point equals 0.01%, and yields move inversely to bond prices.
Investors Brace for Key Data Delayed by Shutdown
The shutdown halted the release of nearly all major data produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department. As agencies resume operations, markets are preparing for a condensed wave of reports that could heavily influence expectations for the Fed’s December interest rate decision.
On Tuesday, investors will receive two major September releases that were pushed back:
- U.S. retail sales
- Producer Price Index (PPI)
Both reports are expected to offer insight into the path of consumer spending and wholesale inflation — two factors central to the Fed’s assessment of economic momentum entering 2026.
Wednesday will bring additional updates, including:
- Weekly initial jobless claims
- Durable goods orders
The U.S. bond market will be closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving Day, leaving a condensed window for traders to analyze the new data ahead of what could be a pivotal Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week.
A correction noted Monday clarified that the retail sales and PPI reports scheduled for Tuesday are for September, not October, after earlier misstatements by some outlets.
Fed Officials Remain Split Ahead of December Vote
Market attention is now turning squarely toward the Fed’s final meeting of the year on Dec. 10–11. Officials remain publicly divided over the appropriate path for interest rates, which could set the tone for financial markets through early 2026.
- Some policymakers — including Governor Christopher Waller and Governor Stephen Miran — have argued that recent softening in labor demand warrants another quarter-point rate cut.
- Others, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, have pushed back against further easing, warning that lowering rates too soon risks reigniting inflationary pressures.
This split reflects ongoing uncertainty caused by the shutdown-induced data blackout, which left policymakers without official government statistics for nearly six weeks.
Despite the gap in federal data, Fed officials have publicly emphasized reliance on alternative datasets — such as private payroll indicators, consumer spending trackers, and real-time business surveys — to guide decisions.
Bond Market Signals Tilt Toward December Cut
Following commentary last week from New York Fed President John Williams — who said he sees “room for a further adjustment” to move policy closer to neutral — traders strengthened bets that the central bank will cut rates again.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are now pricing in more than a 70% probability of a quarter-percentage-point cut next month. That is a sharp increase from earlier this month, when expectations briefly fell below 40% as hawkish messaging from several regional Fed presidents tempered enthusiasm for additional easing.
The bond market, however, remains cautious. The modest decline in yields Monday suggests investors are waiting for this week’s newly released data to confirm whether demand, hiring, and inflation are slowing fast enough to justify another cut.
A Market Still Seeking Direction
The Treasury market enters the holiday-shortened week with lingering volatility from last week’s swings, where yields dropped following equity-market selling tied to AI-stock valuation concerns and uncertainty around the Fed’s next steps.
This week’s incoming economic data may help reset expectations — but with only seven trading days until the Fed meeting, markets are bracing for heightened sensitivity to each report.
As the U.S. economy exits the shutdown and resumes normal data flow, analysts say clarity from the delayed numbers will be crucial for determining whether the recent softening in the labor market signals cooling or something more concerning.