By Harshit
KYIV / WASHINGTON — 22 November 2025
A newly leaked 28-point draft peace proposal — backed by U.S. negotiators and discussed extensively with Moscow — has thrust Ukraine into a moment of enormous geopolitical pressure. At the center of the controversy is a clause proposing that Ukraine hand over parts of its still-controlled territory in eastern Donbas to Russia’s de facto authority, while accepting strict limits on its future security and military posture.
What is known so far suggests a plan that could profoundly reshape Ukraine’s sovereignty — and the balance of power in the region.
Key Points and Major Concessions
The draft lays out 28 proposals. Some, on paper, affirm Ukraine’s continued sovereignty and call for a comprehensive non-aggression pact. Others, however, demand far-reaching compromises:
- Ukraine would cut its armed forces to 600,000 personnel, down from about 880,000 active troops in early 2025.
- Kyiv must amend its constitution to abandon future NATO membership, while NATO must add a statute permanently blocking Ukraine’s admission.
- Several key Donetsk cities still held by Ukraine — Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka — would become part of a “neutral demilitarised zone” but internationally recognised as territory belonging to Russia.
- Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would be recognised worldwide as de facto Russian, though not formally by Ukrainian law.
- Security guarantees for Ukraine remain vague, without any binding NATO-style mutual defense commitment.
These points represent the deepest concessions Kyiv has faced since the 2022 full-scale invasion.
Who Gains and Who Loses
Russia would gain enormously: territorial expansion without additional battlefield risk, permanent blocking of Ukraine’s NATO path, and gradual reintegration into the global economy.
Ukraine would suffer clear setbacks to its sovereignty. Ukrainian officials have already rejected any proposal limiting their military size or recognising Russian-occupied territory.
The U.S. and European partners face a dilemma: end the war quickly, or uphold principles of territorial integrity. Many in the EU say they have not formally reviewed the plan and view the draft as slanted toward Moscow.
Why the Timing Raises Pressure
Washington has pushed for an “aggressive timeline,” reportedly giving Ukraine until Thanksgiving to respond. The urgency is tied to U.S. domestic politics and war fatigue in several Western capitals.
If Kyiv rejects the draft, it risks losing vital U.S. military support. If it accepts, it risks domestic backlash and a long-term loss of sovereignty.
President Zelensky has called the moment “one of extraordinary difficulty,” stressing Ukraine will not sign a deal that violates its constitutional principles.
Security Guarantees and Military Restrictions
One of the biggest gaps in the draft is the lack of clarity on security protections:
- No commitment from NATO or specific states to defend Ukraine.
- A troop cap set at 600,000.
- No NATO soldiers allowed inside Ukraine.
- Ukraine must remain strictly non-nuclear.
This would leave Ukraine dependent on promises rather than enforceable obligations — a deep concern after years of Russian aggression.
Territorial Divisions and Frozen Front Lines
The draft proposes:
- Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donetsk fortress belt, creating a demilitarised zone recognised as Russian territory.
- Freezing the front lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
- Allowing Russia to keep Crimea without challenge.
For Kyiv, these concessions threaten the integrity of the Ukrainian state and set a precedent for future land grabs.
Economic and Diplomatic Trade-Offs
The draft outlines major economic measures:
- $100 billion of frozen Russian assets would be invested in rebuilding Ukraine, with 50% of profit going to the U.S.
- The EU would contribute another $100 billion to reconstruction.
- Russia would gradually be reintroduced to the global economy and eventually invited back to the G8.
But reconstruction costs are estimated above $500 billion — far beyond what the draft offers.
What the Draft Leaves Out
Critics note major omissions:
- No restrictions on Ukraine’s long-range missile development.
- No enforcement mechanisms for the troop cap or territorial withdrawal.
- No clear plan for displaced civilians.
- No timeline for lifting sanctions on Russia.
These gaps leave future disputes almost guaranteed.
What Comes Next
Ukraine must now decide whether to negotiate changes or reject the draft outright. European leaders appear cautious, while Moscow has said the document could serve as a “basis” for agreement.
The proposal’s strongest critics call it a disguised capitulation, while supporters argue it is the only viable path to end the war.
What Kyiv chooses in the coming days will determine not only Ukraine’s future, but the security landscape of Europe for decades.